This week: More on Census Data & New York Growth; VRA Preclearance Submissions; Who Votes in New York City?; Illinois State Legislative Map Challenge
by Jeff Wice & Alexis Marking
CENSUS DATA
More on How New Census Data Reveals Growth in New York State
April 1 marks the halfway point between Census 2020 and Census 2030. We thought we’d take a deeper dive into recent data released by the U.S. Census Bureau this week.
The U.S. Census Bureau has released its Vintage 2024 County Population Estimates, which includes data from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2024. The Program on Applied Demographics from the Cornell School of Public Policy also released a report analyzing this data.
The Population Estimates Program uses current data on birth, deaths, and migration to calculate population changes since the most recent decennial census (the 2020 Census) and produce an “annual time series of estimates of population.” This month’s release included population totals and components of change for U.S. counties and “metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas.”
According to these new estimates, New York State was the fourth most populous state in July 2024 with a total of 19,867,248 residents. New York experienced the 29th largest percent increase (+0.5 percent) and the 5th largest numeric population increase (+129,881 residents) from 2023 to 2024. The first 2 ¼ years after the Census saw a decrease in population, but the last two years saw an increase. From July 2023 to July 2024, the New York State population increased by 0.66 percent. Overall, New York State has declined by 1.7 percent since the 2020 Census, amounting to a loss of 336,524 people.
Population Changes in New York State Regions
According to these estimates, three New York State economic regions have gained population since April 1, 2020: Capital Region, Long Island, and Mid-Hudson. The other seven regions—including Central New York, Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, New York City, North Country, Southern Tier, and Western New York—lost population during this period. The Mid-Hudson region gained the most from 2020 to 2024, increasing its population by 1.2 percent or 28,896 residents. The Capital Region gained 0.9 percent (+9,605 residents) and Long Island gained 0.2 percent (+6,629 residents).
The New York City region lost the most population, amounting to -3.7 percent of its population or -327,522 residents. The remaining six New York regions lost the following populations: Central New York (-1.2 percent, or -9,452 residents); Finger Lakes (-0.9 percent, or -11,418 residents); Mohawk Valley (-0.6 percent, or -3,039 residents); North Country (-2.1 percent, or -8,995 residents); Southern Tier (-1.6 percent, or -10,243 residents); and Western New York (-0.8 percent, or -10,985 residents).
According to the Cornell report, the 2024 Vintage County Population Estimates are the most subject to change because it relies on some preliminary data. However, based on these estimates, all but two regions (North Country and Southern Tier) gained population from 2023 to 2024. New York City gained the most population (1.04 percent, or +87,184 residents) and the Southern Tier lost the most (-0.14 percent, or -891 residents) during this time period.
Between 2023 and 2024, the remaining eight regions experienced the following changes in population: Capital Region (0.48 percent, or +5,314 residents); Central New York (0.12 percent, or +902 residents); Finger Lakes (0.22 percent, or +2,639 residents); Long Island (0.46 percent, or +13,266 residents); Mid-Hudson (0.84 percent, or +20,186 residents); Mohawk Valley (0.06 percent, or +269 residents); North Country (-0.05 percent, or -220 residents); and Western New York (0.09 percent, or +1,232 residents).
Population Changes in New York State Counties
While most New York State counties (44 out of 62) lost population between 2020 and 2024, the majority of counties (37 out of 62) gained population between 2023 and 2024. Orange County numerically gained the most since April 2020 with +10,449 residents, while Otsego County had the biggest relative gain at 3.4 percent. The number of counties with positive net migration (more residents moving in than moving out) grew from 35 counties in 2023 to 54 counties in 2024.
Since 2020, Kings County has lost the most population (-118,665 residents), followed by Queens County (-88,583 residents) and the Bronx (-87,921 residents). The Bronx lost the most relative population (-6.0 percent), followed by Kings and Schuyler counties (both -4.3 percent). Also, most counties (44 out of 62) experienced more deaths than births in 2024 (otherwise known as a natural decrease).
Natural Population Increases and Net Migration
Although natural increase (more births than deaths) has added 0.6 percent to the state population since the 2020 Census, population losses due to net migration (-2.2 percent) led to a decline in the overall population in New York State. Three regions—including Central New York, Finger Lakes, and North Country—lost population through both natural decrease and negative net migration. Natural increase was positive for three regions: Long Island, Mid-Hudson, and New York City. The Capital Region was the only region to gain population from net migration between 2020 and 2024.
Ultimately, according to the Cornell report, “Patterns of population change were largely driven by the New York City region, which experienced both the largest gains due to natural increase and the largest losses due to domestic migration.”
New Census Data Shows Additional Population Growth in New York City Metropolitan Area
The Vintage 2024 Population Estimates also shows that population growth in U.S. metro areas was faster between 2023 and 2024 than the year prior and “outpaced that of the nation.” Also, some metro areas that experienced population declines during the COVID-19 pandemic are now experiencing population gains, including New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ.
While New York City’s population has not fully recovered from the pandemic, this new data shows that it is growing again after a steep drop. The metro area reached 8.48 million people in July 2024, which was an increase from 8.39 million in July 2023. According to demographic and policy experts, this increase is an encouraging sign that the area has stabilized and is “on track to resume the extended trend of growth seen before the pandemic.”
While fewer residents left to move elsewhere, the metro area also increased by approximately one percent. Between 2023 and 2024, the city gained 87,184 residents. This increase is largely attributed to foreign migrants. The number of births and deaths also remained “relatively stable” between 2023 and 2024, following the national pattern of a slowly declining birth rate.
The population still remains below its peak of 8.8 million, which the city reached in early 2020. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, city officials had projected that New York City would reach a population of 9 million within two decades. According to these new estimates, the July 2024 population needed 326,118 more residents to match its 2020 peak.
Additionally, the new census data revised the estimates from 2022 to 2023. This revision showed that the city grew last year for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing by 34,709 residents (with 8.39 million total). Original estimates had shown that the city’s population was still declining. City officials had challenged those figures, arguing that the number of migrants and other individuals living in group settings (such as shelters) were underestimated. According to the New York Times, more than 200,000 migrants have “passed through” New York City shelters since the spring of 2022.
The data shows that all five borough populations grew between 2023 and 2024. Manhattan’s population increased for the third year in a row. Manhattan also grew the most out of all five boroughs last year, showing an approximate increase of 1.7 percent. This increase amounted to 27,435 new residents for a total of 1.66 million residents.
Staten Island grew by less than one percent (3,438 residents), but has regained its pre-pandemic population. The Bronx also grew by less than one percent, adding 9,458 residents. Brooklyn and Queens’ populations increased by approximately one percent. Brooklyn gained 24,694 residents and Queens gained 22,159 residents.
For more information on the Vintage 2024 Population Estimates, click here.
N.Y.S. VOTING RIGHTS ACT
Voting Rights Act Preclearance Submissions
Several Voting Rights Act preclearance submissions have been sent to the Attorney General’s office in the past week. These include requests from Albany County (201, 162, 203), New York City Board of Elections (241), Rockland County(184), and Erie County (223). One submission from the New York City Board of Elections was granted (161). All the submissions dealt with early voting or election day poll site issues. The Attorney General approved one submission from New York City (161) related to poll sites. All numbers in parentheses refer to submission numbers.
All VRA submissions, including the full set of accompanying documentation, and other relevant information such as deadlines, are housed on the Attorney General’s NYVRA Preclearance Portal. The Portal also includes a link for submission of public comments. The OAG cloud link is specifically for documents that are not compatible with the Portal, so a member of the public who views only that link would not see the full submission and would not be able to submit a comment. The cloud link can be accessed on each submission’s Portal page via a PDF titled “additional submission files” which is included in the Supporting Documents section. Through the portal, viewers will be able to access the documents in the cloud as well as all of the other available information and documents.
VOTING
Who Votes in New York City?
In a “must read’ article by Katie Honan in “The City” we learn about who votes in New York City and where they live.
From the report: “(in the) last mayoral election: 2021…(0)f the more than 4.9 million active registered voters for the general election that year, only 1.147 million cast votes, according to the CFB data. That’s just 23% of eligible city dwellers who actually exercised their right to vote.”
Read the entire article here: https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/03/27/who-votes-turnout-elections-voting/
AROUND THE NATION
ILLINOIS: A new case has been brought to the Illinois Supreme Court by state House Republican Leader Tony McCombie. The case asks the court to reject the current legislative map for partisan bias and to appoint a special master to redraw the legislative districts.
It is not currently known whether the court will take the case. However, the court asked both parties to explain whether this lawsuit was filed in a timely manner. The court also allowed House Speaker Emanuel Welch and Senate President Don Harmon to intervene as defendants.
The current state House and Senate maps were passed in 2021 and implemented in 2022. After two general elections under these maps, McCombie and four voters now allege that the districts are not “compact” as required by the Illinois Constitution. They further allege that these districts have led to gerrymandering in favor of Illinois Democrats.
Welch and Harmon argue that Republicans should have filed this lawsuit after the maps were enacted in 2021, not more than three years later. As stated in a filing, “To allow plaintiffs to proceed now, mid-decade, with their proposed redistricting challenge would invite political parties to wait until they have a wave election and use their best election results to justify a partisan challenge to the legislative map.”
In response, counsel for McCombie argued that this filing followed their interpretation of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, which would require data from two election cycles to show evidence of a discriminatory effect caused by gerrymandering. They also argued that because the maps were last used in the 2024 elections, there was a recent “injury” to voters and Republicans that could satisfy the court’s timeliness requirements.
Democrats further argued that any redistricting ordered by the court would interfere with the Illinois Senate’s staggered terms—state senators serve two or four year terms so that the entire Senate is not up for reelection at once. Also, Illinois senators elected in 2024 could have their four-year terms “wrongfully reduced” as a result. McCombie stated that current case law allowed representatives to finish their term even after redistricting is completed, and that a special master could also be directed to not unseat any current senators when redrawing districts.
McCombie has requested oral arguments for this lawsuit, but the court has not yet stated whether it will hear the case or its next steps.
INSTITUTE RESOURCES
The New York Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute has archived many resources for the public to view on our Digital Commons Page.
Our Redistricting Resources page contains resources on the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act. You can access the page
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_resources/
Archived Updates can be accessed
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_roundtable_updates/
Please share this weekly update with your colleagues. To be added to the mailing list, please contact Jeffrey.wice@nyls.edu
The N.Y. Elections, Census & Redistricting Institute is supported by grants from the New York Community Trust, New York Census Equity Fund and the New York City Council. This report was prepared by Jeff Wice & Alexis Marking.