By Jeff Wice & Alexis Marking
This week- NY May Lose Two More Congressional Districts, State VRA Appeal Hearing, Nassau Trial Progresses, Harvard Law Supports Even Year Elections in NYC, NYC Matching Funds Released, Understanding Census Data, Michigan State VRA Fails, January 28 Census Conference
REAPPORTIONMENT
New York Projected to Lose Two Congressional Districts After 2030
After several years of historically low growth caused in part by the COVID-19 pandemic, the nation’s population increased by almost 1% since 2023, representing a significant turnaround from the small population gains at the start of this decade.
Last Thursday, the Census Bureau released July 2024 population estimates for the nation and states. The national population reached 340.1 million, up 0.98% from 336.8 million on July 1, 2023 — the highest year-over-year increase since a jump of 0.99% between 2000 and 2001.
New York grew by an estimated 129,881 persons last year, representing a growth rate 0.7% higher than in 2023. This results in a projected two congressional district loss after the 2030 census is taken. The state lost one congressional district following the 2020 census and could have held on to that district if 89 more people had been counted.
New York last lost two districts after the 2000 and 2010 census cycles. The state lost three districts after 1990 and a record five districts after 1980. The possible inclusion of a citizenship question in the 2030 census and changes to immigration rules and Census Bureau programming by the incoming Trump Administration could also impact the state’s census count, caused further loss of congressional representation based on how the 2030 census is conducted.
N.Y. VOTING RIGHTS ACT LIGITATION
Nassau County Legislature: Coads et al. v. Nassau County & NY Communities for Change (NYCC) v. Nassau County
On December 16th, the county defendants submitted their exhibit list ahead of trial, which included 195 materials. The Action I and Action II plaintiffs also submitted a joint pretrial exhibit list on December 16th, which included a total of 257 materials. Hearings on the case were held in the Westchester County state supreme court and will continue into January.
Appellate Division (Second Department): Clarke v. Newburgh
The Appellate Division’s Second Department held a hearing in the appeal of Clarke v. Newburgh last week. The court is being asked to reverse a ruling by the Orange County state supreme court invalidating the state’s voting rights act. A decision is expected shortly.
ELECTION LAW
Harvard Law Election Law Clinic Supports NYC Even Year Voting
The Election Law Clinic at Harvard Law School has sent a letter to the New York City Council supporting Resolution No. 189-A (an amendment to the New York State Constitution to move New York City elections To even-numbered years). The letter argues that a change by the city to hold its elections in even years “will prevent potential violations of federal and state law.” The study argues that “it is unlawful for states and local governments to maintain off-cycle elections if they have a racially disparate effect.” You can read the letter here: bit.ly/41NdzJR
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
NYC Campaign Finance Board Begins Releasing Payments
The NYC Campaign Finance Board has released its first payments (with seven more payments to be made in the future) through the Campaign Finance Program to certified candidates for the 2025 Citywide Elections. The candidate list features 174 participants, listed here. The voluntary program matches small-dollar contributions from New York City residents. This first payment totaled $4,844,084 to nineteen candidates.
As described by the Board, “The Program empowers more candidates to run for office, even without access to wealth; ones who join can build viable, competitive campaigns for office by relying on support from their neighbors.” The program is meant to incentivize candidates to financing their campaigns through engaging with New Yorkers, rather than seeking larger contributions from special interests.
Any candidate running for municipal office (borough president, city council, comptroller, mayor, public advocate) may join the program. The program does not include state or federal offices or county district attorney offices. All candidates must fulfill four requirements to be considered eligible, listed here. There are spending limits and restrictions, as well as limits on public funds.
Board Chair Frederick Schaffer also released a statement on Mayor Eric Adams’ bid for reelection. As part of its statement, the Board stated, “… There is reason to believe the Adams campaign has engaged in conduct detrimental to the matching funds program, in violation of law, including the Campaign Finance Act and Board Rules… Accordingly, Mayor Adams’ campaign for reelection has failed to demonstrate eligibility for public funds payment at this time.”
CENSUS DATA
Census Funding and Understanding the Use of Data
The U.S. Census Bureau is currently funded under a continuing resolution until March 2025.
On December 5th, the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability held a hearing on the oversight of the Bureau, where Bureau Director Robert Santos testified. This testimony focused on the efficacy of the 2020 Census, the American Community Survey (ACS), and the role the Bureau plays throughout the federal data ecosystem. This hearing experienced many statements of mis- and disinformation about the census process which failed to be corrected. To receive more accurate information on the Bureau’s efforts, check the Bureau’s website. The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights has released a statement urging Congress to support an independent, full-funded Census Bureau.
For concerns about how data is collected and used, the Brennan Center has released a report that provides an overview of the “strong, long-standing legal protections” that prohibit both the Bureau and any part of the federal government from using census data against individuals who participate in the census.
AROUND THE NATION
Michigan Legislature Fails to Vote on Michigan Voting Rights Act in Last Session
Last week, the Michigan legislature failed to vote on the Michigan Voting Rights Act (MIVRA). The Democratic majorities in the Michigan House and Senate were unable to pass the MIVRA before the clock ran out on the 2024 session.
The MIVRA is a historic bill for statewide voting protections and would have “codified protections against voting discrimination, strengthened access to the polls, and ensured all eligible voters maintain their freedom to vote.” This session was the last opportunity for the legislature to pass the MIVRA.
A recent poll by Impact Research, conducted on behalf of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, revealed that 77% of Michigan voters supported a state voting rights act, including 66% that “strongly supported” the passage of the MIVRA. Only 8% of polled Michiganders opposed the bill. The support shows a bipartisan interest, as the majority of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans were all in favor of the MIVRA. About 8-in-10 of the Michiganders polled view protecting voting rights in Michigan as very important.
Seventy-five civil and voting rights leaders across Michigan and the U.S. urged the legislature to pass the MIVRA. The failure to do so will leave minority groups vulnerable to potential attacks on the electoral system during the next term. Democrats lost control of the Michigan House last month in the elections so chances of passage by the House next year are not realistic.
UPCOMING EVENTS
New York “American Community Survey” Census Conference
January 28, 2025- Census” “ACS On the Road” – Join New York Law School, New York Counts, the Population Reference Bureau, New York City Planning Department, and the U.S. Census Bureau to learn how different data users in New York City use American Community Survey (ACS) data. We will conclude with small breakout sessions where you will have the opportunity to interact with Census Bureau staff and share what you need to better use ACS data in your own work. The event will be held at New York Law School, 185 West Broadway, Manhattan from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM. Registration is required. You can register here: https://nyls.wufoo.com/forms/qnqo80v1iobqqa/
INSTITUTE RESOURCES
The New York Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute has archived many resources for the public to view on our Digital Commons Page.
Our Redistricting Resources page contains resources on the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act. You can access the page
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_resources/
Archived Updates can be accessed
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_roundtable_updates/
Please share this weekly update with your colleagues. To be added to the mailing list, please contact Jeffrey.wice@nyls.edu
The N.Y. Elections, Census & Redistricting Institute is supported by grants from the New York Community Trust, New York Census Equity Fund, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the New York City Council. This report was prepared by Jeff Wice & Alexis Marking.