By Jeff Wice & Alexis Marking
This week- New York Population Loss Projections, NY Voting Rights Appeal, Plattsburgh Redistricts
CENSUS
New York’s Population May Decrease by 2 Million People by 2050
A recent analysis released by the Cornell University’s Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy’s Program on Applied Demographics (PAD) indicated that the state’s New York population could shrink “by more than 2 million people over the next 25 years – a decline of more than 13 percent.” The analysis projects that the state is facing a significant population decline due to low fertility rates and aging that has not been offset by new arrivals.
New York’s immigrant-fueled population growth in recent decades helped minimize congressional district losses after the decennial censuses were completed and districts were apportioned among the states. The state is now projected to lose two districts after 2030 and the impact of any future restrictions on immigration (or large deportations) may impact New York’s delegation size even further.
As reported in the Cornell Chronicle, “The projections confirm what we have been seeing for some time, which is that if the demographic trends in the state do not change, its population will continue to decline,” said PAD lead analyst Jan Vink. “Conservative estimates suggest a population decrease of 1 million by 2050, but we think an even greater decline is more likely.”
According to Jan Vink at Cornell :
- Three scenarios were developed: a middle series with a set of assumptions that correspond with demographic change during the last decade and a high and a low scenario that assume changes more towards population increase and more towards population decrease. The 2050 population is projected to be between 17 and 19.5 million, compared to an estimated 19.6 million in 2023.
- The number of people ages 0-17 is projected to decline between 10% and 25% over the coming 25 years amidst a decline in the number of births.
- The number of 65 and over is projected to increase by 15-20% over the next 10 years but decrease slightly afterwards.
- The prime working age population (age 25-44) is around 7.7 million now and is projected to be between 7.2 and 7.7 million in 10 years and between 6.5 and 7.4 million in 25 years.
- The number of births has been declining in New York and the number of deaths has been increasing. These projections expect that the number of deaths will outnumber the number of births sometime during the next decade.
- Domestic migration flows are the biggest driver of population change in New York and also hardest to project.
Cornell’s Program on Applied demographics has published projections of New York state and county population for at least 25 years. The last time was in 2018. The recent publication only contains statewide projections that will be used as a control for county projections in the coming months. The population is projected through 2050.
N.Y. VOTING RIGHTS ACT LITIGATION
Orange County: Clarke v. Newburgh: Appellate Division Fast Tracks Appeal
On November 7th, the New York Voting Rights Act (NYVRA) was struck down in a decision from the Orange County Supreme Court, which ruled that the NYVRA violated the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. On November 11th, the plaintiffs appealed this order to the Appellate Division, Second Judicial Department.
On November 15th, the Court accepted the appeal. On or before November 25th, the appellants must now perfect the appeals (submit the original papers constituting the record on appeal and file the appellants’ briefs). On or before December 2nd, the respondents (the Town of Newburgh and the Newburgh Town Board) must file its brief. Lastly, the appellants must file their reply briefs by December 5th.
Nassau County Legislature: Coads et al. v. Nassau County & NY Communities for Change (NYCC) v. Nassau County
These actions arose from challenges to the 2023 redistricting map from the Nassau County Legislature, which went into effect on February 28th. The cases were also joined for discovery.
On November 11th, the plaintiffs in Coads et al. and NYCC filed a consolidated memorandum (“memo”) of law in opposition to the defendants’ motions for summary judgment. The memo included two main arguments.
First, the plaintiffs argue that the court should deny summary judgment on the Coads plaintiffs’ partisan gerrymandering claim because (1) whether the defendants acted with partisan intent is a disputed, triable issue; (2) the Nassau County map was the product of a “one-sided partisan process”; and (3) the map confers partisan advantage on Republicans. Second, the plaintiffs argue that the New York Voting Rights Act (NYVRA) is legally valid and the plaintiffs’ claim is “trial worthy.” For this argument, the plaintiffs include five additional sub-arguments.
On November 12th, the plaintiffs filed a consolidated counterstatement of facts in response to the defendants’ statement of material facts (filed in support of summary judgment). The document, which was sixty-seven pages in total, responded to many of the defendants’ “undisputed” claims.
Also on November 12th, the plaintiffs filed an affirmation of Perry Grossman, Director of the Voting Rights Project at the NYCLU and counsel for the NYCC plaintiffs, in support of the plaintiffs’ consolidated opposition. This affirmation included thirty-five exhibits.
Erie County: Young v. Town of Cheektowaga
In March, Kenneth Young filed a lawsuit against the Town of Cheektowaga, alleging racially polarized voting in the Cheektowaga Town Board elections.
On November 11th, the Town of Cheektowaga filed a reply memorandum of law in further support of its cross-motion for summary judgment. The memo included three key arguments. First, the defendant claims the NYVRA violates several provisions of the U.S. and New York State Constitutions. The Town references the recent Clarke ruling on the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment, but also claims that the NYVRA violates the 15th Amendment, the separation of powers doctrine, and the free speech and procedural due process of voters.
Second, the Town argues that the plaintiff’s NYVRA challenge is not “ripe.”. Lastly, the Town asserts that it has the capacity to challenge the constitutionality of the NYVRA because the NYVRA forces the Town to violate “constitutional proscriptions.” The Town concludes by asking for its cross-motion for summary judgment to be granted, the plaintiff’s complaint to be dismissed in its entirety, and for the NYVRA to be struck down as unconstitutional.
Westchester County: Serratto et al. v. Town of Mount Pleasant
This lawsuit was filed in January by the Mount Pleasant Hispanic community, alleging that the at-large method of election prevented Hispanic voters from electing the candidate of their choice.
On November 12th, the plaintiffs filed a letter to the judge in response to the defendants’ letter from November 8th. Both letters were regarding a recent decision issued by the Orange County Supreme Court in Clark v. Newburgh, which held the NYVRA unconstitutional under the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. The plaintiffs argue that Clarke wrongly concludes that the NYVRA is a racial classification.
Furthermore, the plaintiffs in Clarke have already filed a notice of appeal to the Appellate Division. Counsel argues that a single Supreme Court justice lacks the authority to either “strike” the NYVRA from state law or to bind non-parties. For those reasons and others, the plaintiffs argue that Clarke has no bearing on their NYVRA claims. The plaintiffs are prepared to further address the Clarke decision at oral argument on the parties’ cross motions for summary judgment, which is scheduled for November 21st.
On November 15th, the defendants filed a notice of motion to stay proceedings and a memo in support of this motion. The defendants argue that the outcome of the Clarke appeal will bind the court. Furthermore, they assert that while the Clarke case waits for appeal, the NYVRA is stricken and therefore should not be enforced against the Town of Mount Pleasant. Additionally, Ariana Dindiyal (counsel for the defendants) filed an affirmation in support of this motion on November 15th and included three exhibits.
REDISTRICTING
Clinton County: City of Plattsburgh Redistricting Commission Presents Final Redistricting Map Proposal
On February 1st, the City of Plattsburgh’s Common Council postponed redistricting until 2025 after receiving approval from Mayor Chris Rosenquest. Plattsburgh follows a charter that mandates the formation of a commission to review and change existing ward districts within 6 months after the publication of the decennial census. The current map was implemented in 2011.
The members of Plattsburgh’s redistricting commission have now presented the city’s councilors with its final proposal of changes to the city’s current ward district boundaries. According to the 2020 Census, the six proposed ward districts would have a population between 3,237 and 3,402 residents (with 19,917 residents total).
The commission proposed recommendations following the state Municipal Home Rule law that keep the new lines as close as possible to existing district lines. The new district lines cannot deviate more than 5% of the “average population value” (or +2.5/-2.5%) for each district, must follow “clearly identifiable geographic features,” and must align with municipal boundaries.
Mayor Rosenquest stated that the next step for the proposed map is “the introduction to a local law to adopt these ward boundaries.”
INSTITUTE RESOURCES
The New York Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute has archived many resources for the public to view on our Digital Commons Page.
Our Redistricting Resources page contains resources on the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act. You can access the page
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_resources/
Archived Updates can be accessed
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_roundtable_updates/
Please share this weekly update with your colleagues. To be added to the mailing list, please contact Jeffrey.wice@nyls.edu
The N.Y. Elections, Census & Redistricting Institute is supported by grants from the New York Community Trust, New York Census Equity Fund, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the New York City Council. This report was prepared by Jeff Wice & Alexis Marking.